I really don’t want to write about this match, but I guess it is obligatory. Roddick has had so many chances with Federer, and he’s only come through in Kooyong (which yes, was an exhibition). I just can’t get my hopes up again and watch him fall in straight sets - well, okay, I won’t get to watch anything because I’ll be working during their match, but I am watching the scoreboard online.
I think Andy is right about the gap between Federer’s game and his own narrowing, but as much as I root for the underdog, I also know Federer can play an amazing game when he needs to.
Here’s what others are saying…
As I wrote in my last column, Roddick is primed for this tournament. He is playing the best tennis of his career — his movement, backhand and transition game have all made significant strides recently — and has an infusion of confidence from his new coaching relationship with Jimmy Connors.
Andy has shown that he is bridging the gap between Federer and himself, winning a set in last year’s U.S. Open final, taking him to match point in Shanghai in December and beating him in the Kooyong warmup exhibition prior to the Aussie Open.
Andy knows how he has to play to beat Federer, and while it’s easier to draw it up on a chalkboard than actually execute it, his improvements in the aforementioned areas give him the tools to do it. Andy is one of the few players who can successfully take Federer’s time away. He can overpower Federer with his powerful serve. Moreover, with his increased comfort and proficiency at the net, Andy now has a way to rush Federer when his serve comes back.
Andy has spent endless hours improving not only his volleying, but also his approach shots and net coverage. When I was in Hawaii with him last month, we spent much of our practices re-enacting patterns of play where he would approach and have to win points at the net. I believe this, in addition to the technical improvements Connors has made to shore up Andy’s backhand, will make a significant difference on Thursday.
Everyone knows Roddick has a huge serve and forehand, but Federer figured out how to neutralize them by blocking back his return and using his short, hard slice to lure Andy into the net in defensive or neutral situations. Now that Roddick is more comfortable attacking the net and is mixing up his serve and volley more, Federer has many more variables to consider when trying to neutralize all of Roddick’s weapons. SI (Justin Gimelstob)
Maybe Connors has the magic plan…I think the first set is key here. I just picture Roddick getting frustrated if he doesn’t win it…
Larry Stefanki, the coach behind the dramatic improvement of Chile’s Fernando Gonzalez, took note of Federer’s tactics and believes the defending champion is preparing a net-based assault against Roddick tonight.
Stefanki thinks Federer can beat Roddick from the baseline but is determined to beat him a different way this time.
“He is obviously doing it for a reason because I have never seen him do this in the last two years,” said Stefanki, the former coach of world No.1 players John McEnroe, Yevgeny Kafelnikov and Marcelo Rios.
“Maybe he is going to serve and volley a lot on both balls against Andy.
“He can play at the back with anybody but he likes to be aggressive and put himself at the net and in no-man’s land; he likes the challenge of being there. He is trying not to get bored. It is a lot of fun to come into the net and take balls in the air and volley and hit short and come in behind it.”
This is not to say that Federer will charge the net simply for his own amusement.
Since teaming with Connors in July last year, Roddick is a technically improved player. His backhand is more reliable, he has developed his slice and he is better at getting the ball into play on the return of serve.
Leo Levin, an IBM analyst for the grand slam broadcasters, predicted Federer would mix serve and volley tactics with more conventional baseline play to put pressure on the Roddick return and prevent the American from chip and charging the second serve.
“Against a baseliner, just floating the ball high over the net gets it back deep in the court,” Levin said. “When your opponent is coming in, it is an easy sitter volley. When someone is coming in some of the time, the opponent doesn’t know whether they can float it or they have to hit it.
“If Federer can keep Roddick guessing it takes away the luxury of being able to just block the ball back.”
The longer this championship has progressed, the more Federer has come into the net. Throughout the tournament, he has won 26 per cent of his points at the net. At last year’s tournament, it was 21 per cent. The Australian
Poor Andy.
Picking against Federer is just silly. But can I go on record as saying I give Roddick a reasonable chance? I don’t think I’ve ever seen him play better than he has here. If the serve is clicking and if Federer gets agitated — the weird gusts of wind clearly frustrated him the other night against Tom Robredo — this could be interesting.
A lot of you have asked how much weight I put in Roddick’s win over Federer at the Kooyong Exhibition. The answer is some. Yes, it’s an exhibition. But as Roddick has said (repeatedly), he and Federer played with intentions of winning. I was fired up for Fernando Gonzalez’s upset of Rafael Nadal on Wednesday, but Roddick-Federer is a serious popcorn match. SI (Jon Wertheim)
I really hope it is a good match - even a 5 set loss for Roddick would be a vast improvement. Of course, I am hoping for the win - I’m always for the underdog against Feds.
