The Road to #1
Rafa Nadal is certainly poised to be #1 this year, and many commentators already consider him to be #1 with his Wimbledon win. I found this great snippet on how it can happen over the next few weeks:
Update: Can Nadal become No. 1 in Cincinnati?
Yes, but he’ll need some help from Federer. The Swiss world No. 1 still controls his rankings fate – no matter how Nadal does, if Federer reaches the Cincinnati final, he will hold on to No. 1 till the Olympics.To become No. 1 this week, Nadal must reach the final or win the title as well as have Federer lose three rounds earlier.
But Nadal has a better shot in two weeks because of schedule changes and their staggered effect on the rankings. If Federer reaches the Cincinnati semifinals, Nadal can become No. 1 in two weeks if he wins the title. If Federer loses before the semifinals, then Nadal can become No. 1 in two weeks if he reaches the final.
In any event, Nadal must outperform Federer by 300 points to become No. 1 this week, and by 175 points to become No. 1 after the end of next week. tennis.com
July 31st, 2008 at 2:12 pm
i’m not an expert, but i’m reading a lot about the rankings that i think lacks depth. on aug. 11th the points from last year’s canada masters series will come off the rankings and federer will lose 350 as opposed to nadal’s 225. on aug. 18th the points from last year’s cincy masters series will come off the rankings and federer will lose 500 as opposed to nadal’s 5. thus, it is true that for nadal to take the no. 1 spot this week he needs to outperform fed by 300 and for him to take it on aug. 11th all he needs to do is outperform fed by 300 - 125 = 175. However, assuming they receive the same number of points in the olympics, federer has to do better than nadal by 175 + 5 = 180 in order for him to retain the top spot on aug. 18th. Thus, even if federer defends his title in cincinnati, if nadal makes it to the semis, federer will have to outperform nadal at the olympics or he will lose the no. 1 ranking before the u.s. open. to reiterate, if nadal makes it to the semis or better in cincy, then federer will have to do very well at the olympics and hope for nadal to slip up in order for him to be no. 1 at the u.s. open.